What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies
用FAVAR模型分析全球不同地区需求对实际油价的影响，发现新兴经济体（尤其是亚洲）的需求对油价波动的影响是发达国家的两倍以上，且不同地区对油价冲击的反应不同。
We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real oil price and in oil production. Furthermore, geographical regions respond differently to adverse oil market shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than countries in Asia and South America. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.