Credit booms and macrofinancial stability
研究了信贷繁荣何时发生、何时以危机告终，发现仅三分之一的繁荣后出现金融危机，宏观审慎工具在遏制繁荣和限制危机后果方面有效。
This paper explores several questions about credit booms and busts: When do credit booms occur? When do they end up in busts, and when do they not? What are the implications for different policies if curbing credit growth and/or mitigating the associated risks is an objective? We find that credit booms are often associated with financial reform and economic growth. They also tend to be more frequent in fixed exchange rate regimes. Only one in three credit boom episodes are followed by a financial crisis. These booms tend to be larger and last longer. Macroprudential tools have at times proven effective in containing booms, and more often in limiting the consequences of busts, due to the buffers they helped to build.