Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models
利用与美联储绿皮书预测同步的实时数据集，评估四个DSGE模型对通胀、产出增长和联邦基金利率的预测准确性，发现模型预测在产出增长和利率上与绿皮书相当，但通胀预测不及；结合多个模型可提高精度，但模型高估了不确定性。
This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as accurate as the Greenbook projections for output growth and the federal funds rate. Only for inflation are the model forecasts dominated by the Greenbook projections. A comparison with forecasts from Bayesian vector autoregressions shows that the economic structure of the DSGE models which is useful for the interpretation of forecasts does not lower the accuracy of forecasts. Combining forecasts of several DSGE models increases precision in comparison to individual model forecasts. Comparing density forecasts with the actual distribution of observations shows that DSGE models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.