The Cross-Lagged Research Approach: Description and Illustration
介绍交叉滞后技术，用于在不进行实验操控的情况下研究因果关系，并以期望理论、预算特征与心理维度等研究为例说明其应用。
A number of studies have employed simple correlational statistics as a basis for inferring causality. Examples are tests of expectancy theories regarding motivation and performance (Ferris [1977] and Jiambalvo [1979]), of the relationship between budget characteristics like participation, feedback, style of evaluation, performance, and job involvement (Kenis [1979], Collins [1978], Milani [1975], and Otley [1978]), and of the effects of such psychological dimensions as personality, decision style, and risk-taking propensity on decision accuracy, confidence, and flexibility (Weber [1978] and Lucas [1975]). Simple correlations are often employed because many variables of interest are difficult to manipulate experimentally. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the cross-lagged technique which can be used to investigate causal relations without experimental manipulation. We first explain the type of analysis on which the crosslagged approach is based, followed by the technique's underlying as-