Problems of Selecting a Plausible Fertility Measure for Addis Ababa (Based on the 1984 Census Data)
该研究用四种方法分析1984年亚的斯亚贝巴人口普查数据,发现原始数据因漏报等问题严重不准确,最终估计该市生育率约为6,对评估数据质量和选择合适指标有参考价值。
Addis Ababa Population and Housing Census data from 1984 were analyzed by 4 methods to approach the best fertility estimate for the city. This survey asked every woman aged 10 years or older how many children were born within the last 12 months, and the total number of live-born children ever born. These data could be in error due to misreporting of other children of extended families, including stillbirths, omitting infants who died, adult children or offspring of other husbands, all tending to make reported fertility decrease with age. According to United Nations classification, these data were highly inaccurate, particularly the age-sex reporting. The reported age-specific fertility and average parity by age groups are tabulated. The estimated total fertility rate by the Coale and Demeny formula is 5.89, compared to that from raw data of 3.14. Fertility by the Brass method produced a median of 6.5. The Gompertz relational method of Brass resulted in a median total fertility rate of ranging from 1.99-5.29 at various age points. The Brass-Arriaga method generated a median estimate of 6.39 and a mean of 6.06. Taking all the estimates into account the most plausible estimate of fertility is around 6.