Political Polling: 95% Expertise and 5% Luck
本文回顾了英国选举民调在1992年大选前的良好记录，分析了市场研究学会调查发现的抽样系统缺陷、后期转向及保守党支持者不愿表态等问题，并讨论了应对“沉默螺旋”的未来发展。
SUMMARY The record of British election polls was good- until the general election of 1992. The Market Research Society's inquiry into the performance of the polls in 1992 found inadequacies in the implementation of the sampling system used, evidence of a late swing and some reluctance of Conservative supporters to reveal their loyalty; but it generally endorsed the principle of well-conducted quota polling and found that variations in methodological detail had nil effect on the results. The evidence is presented and some possible future developments to counter the 'spiral of silence' are discussed.