Predictability and Prediction
讨论了当预测仅基于单组数据时缺乏广泛经验基础的问题，并研究了如何设计和分析研究以获得常规可预测的结果，通过两个案例说明。
A result can be regarded as routinely predictable when it has recurred consistently under a known range of different conditions. This depends on the previous analysis of many sets of data, drawn from different populations. There is no such basis of extensive experience when a prediction is derived from the analysis of only a single set of data. Yet that is what is mainly discussed in our statistical texts. The paper discusses the design and analysis of studies aimed at achieving routinely predictable results. It uses two running case history examples