The Probabilities of Life and Work Force Status in the Calculation of Expected Earnings
详细阐述了如何利用增量-减量工作生命表，将年龄特定收入与生存概率、劳动力参与概率结合，计算因过失死亡或伤害导致的预期收入损失，并批评了当前诉讼中使用的简化方法。
A starting point for most calculations of lost future earnings resulting from wrongful death or injury is an estimate of tile worklife expectancy of tile subject had death or injury not occurred. In assessing this worklife expectancy attention is drawn to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics increnment-decrement worklife tables. Unlike other BLS tables of labog force participation, tile increment-decrement tables trace the work force statuses of a specific cohort as it ages 1101. Only the increment-decrement approach comilbilles the chance of mortality and the possibility that a person could in the future leave (or enter) the work force and then return (or leave). In a previous article, a model was developed to show how the incrementdecrement tables call be used to calculate a mathematically defensible estimate of expected earnings. This paper describes in greater detail the way in which age specific earnings are embodied in these calculations. A new model, which is algebraically equivalent to the earlier model, is developed to explicitly show tile interaction of the probability of life, the probability of work force activity, and earnings at later ages. The importance of these interactions in calculating expected earnings is demonstrated through a comparison of this method with three other methods that are representative of those currently being used in wrongful death and injury litigation. In the simplest method for calculating expected earnings, net earnings are projected only for the period from death or injury to the BLS estimate of remaining worklife. A second method calls for an adjustment of the BLS estimate of remaining worklife to obtain a measure of the time until final separation from tile work force. Earnings are then projected from the time of death or injury to this estimate of final separation (for example, see Nelson [61 and Boudreaux [21. This article argues that these two methods are inappropriate because they fail to capture the age specific entry and exit probabilities that can be derived from the increment-decrement tables. Consequently, they do not reproduce the appropriate proportions of persons