Pension Plan Cost Risk
研究了长期养老金计划中因通胀率、工资增长率和投资回报不利变化导致的成本风险，通过模拟概率分布计算成本偏离预期值的可能性，并测试了不同假设的敏感性。
This study investigates the long-run pension plan cost risk associated with adverse inflation rate, salary growth rate, and investment return experience. Risk, which is measured by the likely deviation of pension cost from the expected pension cost, is calculated from simulated probability distributions of pension cost. The results are tested for sensitivity to the expected inflation rate assumption, the asset mix assumption, and postretirement cost-of-living provisions. The investigations indicate significant potential for adverse cost experience. Pension planning based on deterministic or expected actuarial outcomes may seriously underestimate pension cost and lead to harmful decisions resulting in funding problems and financially burdensome benefits.