An Empirical Investigation of Wagner's Hypothesis by Using a Model Occurrence Framework
基于86国数据，用模型发生框架检验瓦格纳假说（发展水平越高公共部门相对规模越大），发现仅三分之一国家支持该假说，且其适用条件预测力差。
SUMMARY Wagner's hypothesis asserts that as a country's level of development increases so does the relative size of its public sector. This study examines the empirical validity of Wagner's hypothesis. Based on data from 86 countries, the study employs a model occurrence framework to determine whether Wagner's hypothesis holds for the countries in which it is expected to. The results are discouraging for believers in Wagner's hypothesis. Indeed, Wagner's hypothesis is supported in only a third of the countries and its variable occurrence is not explained well in terms of a priori applicability conditions either in sample or out of sample.