Statistics in Solving Crime
本文探讨统计学在破案中的作用，特别是通过分析陌生人连环强奸案，展示统计学家如何利用数据协助警方构建罪犯画像并改进破案方法。
Many crimes are readily solved and may require little investigative effort (Burrows and Tarling, 1987). Even with serious crimes, such as rape, the offender is often known to the victim and thus the police are told the exact identity of the offender. Smith (1989) suggests that in two-fifths of rapes the offender is 'well known' to the victim. Nevertheless, the search is always on to improve methods of solving major crimes as in the case of a series of 'stranger rapes'. The contribution of forensic scientists and scenes-of-crime officers is well known but increasingly other professionals are involved. The Federal Bureau of Investigation, for example, has a dedicated unit of behavioural scientists to evaluate evidence to construct a profile of the likely offender (Hazelwood and Warren, 1989). The role of statisticians is often overlooked and I shall demonstrate their potential by looking at the contribution that they can make to solving serial rapes committed by strangers.