The Deeper Causes of the Financial Crisis:Mortgages Alone Cannot Explain It
研究发现美国住房抵押贷款损失远小于2008年金融危机规模，高杠杆和风险偏好是直接原因，深层原因包括券商从合伙制转为公司制、30年放松监管趋势、量化运动、风险文化蔓延和全球化。
Losses on U.S. residential mortgage loans are too small to explain the magnitude of the 2008 financial crisis. Total losses, including both losses realized to date and those yet to be realized, should fall in the range of $750 billion to $2 trillion. The global magnitude of the crisis is significantly larger, probably in the range of $5 trillion to $15 trillion, depending on the measuring approach. This implies that losses on residential mortgage loans cannot be the main cause of the crisis. They can only be a trigger that unleashed the true causes. The failure (or near failure) of a significant number of major financial firms suggests that high leverage and strong risk appetites were important immediate causes of the crisis. However, explaining the sources of high leverage and strong risk appetites requires probing for deeper causes that developed over a longer period. This article proposes deeper causes that include securities firms’ conversion from partnerships to corporations, the 30-year deregulation trend, the quant movement, the spread of risk-taking culture throughout the financial industry, and globalization. <b>TOPICS:</b>Financial crises and financial market history, MBS and residential mortgage loans, in markets