Do tax cuts generate twin deficits? A multi‐country analysis
研究了16个工业化国家1970年后减税对预算赤字和外部赤字的影响，发现减税通过人口结构和预测两个渠道导致双赤字。
Abstract We study the effects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post‐1970 period. Our structural approach is based on a small open economy model where a tax cut affects the external deficit by two distinct channels. The demographic channel works through the overlapping‐generation structure of the model. The forecasting channel works through the dynamic structure of the model. Our empirical analysis documents that tax shocks generate twin deficits, and that both channels play important roles in explaining the positive comovement between the budget and external deficits.