Supply‐Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France
利用1930年代法国数据，研究发现1936年法国脱离金本位后实施的强制加薪和40小时工作制等供给侧政策导致了滞胀，且新凯恩斯模型无法解释这一现象。
The effects of supply‐side policies in depressed economies are controversial. We shed light on this debate using evidence from France in the 1930s. In 1936, France departed from the gold standard and implemented mandatory wage increases and hours restrictions. Deflation ended but output stagnated. We present time‐series and cross‐sectional evidence that these supply‐side policies, in particular the 40‐hour law, contributed to French stagflation. These results are inconsistent both with the standard one‐sector New Keynesian model and with a medium scale, multisector model calibrated to match our cross‐sectional estimates. We conclude that the New Keynesian model is a poor guide to the effects of supply‐side shocks in depressed economies.