Firms’ Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis
利用英国企业数据构建模型，发现即使只有少数企业受信贷约束，信贷紧缩也会通过未受约束企业的预防性储蓄行为放大宏观就业波动。
Can the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks be large even when a small share of firms is credit constrained? I use UK firm-level accounting data to discipline a heterogeneous-firm model where the interaction between real and financial frictions induces precautionary cash holdings. In the data, firms increased their cash ratios during the Great Recession, and cash-intensive firms displayed higher employment growth. A tightening of firms’ credit conditions generates the same dynamics in the model. Unconstrained firms preemptively respond to credit supply shocks; this precautionary channel, when appropriately quantified, crucially matters for the aggregate dynamics and firm-level patterns.