Tools for helping comprehend ageing China
本文基于第六次人口普查数据，用地图技术展示中国336个地级市的老龄化水平和加速程度，指出主要老龄化极点和地区差异，对研究中国人口结构变化和政策制定者有用。
Children represent our planet’s future, yet the increasing ratio of older people makes it no longer possible to ignore the issue of population ageing. By 2030, people aged 65 years or older will number one billion; about one in every eight people on Earth (Kinsella and Phillips, 2005). There are needs for innovative thought and scientific contributions that address the reality and potential of our ageing world. Owing largely to the prevalence of birth control and an extremely low fertility rate, China is ageing rapidly, far outpacing many developed countries such as Germany, France and the United States (Kinsella and Phillips, 2005). The ratio of people in China aged 65 years and over rose from 5.5% in 1990 (fourth census) to 7.0% in 2000 (fifth census). With older people found as 8.9% of the total population as of 2010, China is now faced with numerous related challenges. By 2050, the ageing rate is predicted to climb to 22.6%, with 334 million people over 65, and 94 million people over 80, potentially making it the world’s most aged country (China National Working Commission on Ageing, 2015; United Nations, 2013). This is an unprecedented issue in China, and it affects the future of the country’s human resources, economic structure, forms of retirement, social security system, and family and community life. Demographic dividends (in which there is a large working-age population and low dependence ratio of children and older people) no longer work as a stimulus of economic development. Since 1995, China has adjusted its pension funds to address the challenge of the ageing population and has relaxed its rules on birth control. A host of related factors, such as the so-called empty nest (older people living alone without care by their children) and the increasing old-age dependency ratio, form areas of expanding research and public debate. Based on newly published data from the sixth Chinese census, and the techniques of cartogram and kernel density, the maps below show the level of ageing across 336 prefecture-level cities in both the ratio of older people and its rate of acceleration (Figures 1 and 2). We found that 276 of the 336 cities had a population where over 7% were aged 65 years or older, and 79 surpassed 10%. Three main ageing poles are seen in cities in Jiangsu-Anhui, Hubei and Sichuan Provinces (Figure 1). Additional rapidly ageing centres are in cities in Xinjiang, Liaoning and Guangdong (Figure 2). Some cities are still relatively young, such as Shenzhen (1.79% aged 65 years or older) and Dongguan (2.29%), owing to high numbers of young immigrant workers. The variation across regions implies