The Impacts of India's Food Security Policies on South Asian Wheat and Rice Markets
量化分析印度稳定小麦和大米市场的政策如何影响南亚其他国家，发现印度政策导致区域内贸易接近自给自足，价格传导有限，但出口补贴使进口国消费者受益，而生产者税则损害其他国家消费者。
We quantify the extent to which India's success in stabilizing its wheat and rice markets affects other countries in South Asia. We deal with the variability of Indian trade and price policies by analyzing market outcomes during periods of low and high world prices; we also conduct stochastic simulations where Indian policies endogenously adjust to fluctuations in domestic and world supplies. South Asian wheat and rice markets operate near autarky, and therefore, intra-regional price transmission is limited. However, we find that when India's policies result in implicit export subsidies, consumers in countries that import from India benefit; meanwhile implicit producer taxation harms consumers elsewhere. Pakistan—the only country in the region that competes with India in foreign markets—would see gains in market shares when India reduces its export subsidies. We also find that the low intra-regional trade shields India's neighbors from the excess volatility caused by Indian policies.