Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?
通过比较美联储的联邦基金利率预测与替代模型及期货市场的预测，发现美联储对其未来政策行动拥有更优的信息，且结果稳健。
This paper contributes to the ongoing debate about the existence and source of asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public by examining the federal funds rate forecasts. It compares the Federal Reserve federal funds rate forecasts with the predictions of alternative forecasting models and forecasts from the futures market for federal funds. The results show that the Federal Reserve has superior information about its own future policy actions, the future federal funds rate. The results are robust to alternative specifications.