关闭温盐环流

Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation

American Economic Review · 2016
被引 47
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究利用三个气候模型实验发现,温盐环流减缓导致的降温幅度小于温室气体增温,通过综合评估模型分析表明,这种减缓对人类福利总体上有轻微正面影响。

Abstract

Past climatic changes were caused by a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. We use results from experiments with three climate models to show that the expected cooling due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is less in magnitude than the expected warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The integrated assessment model FUND and a meta-analysis of climate impacts are used to evaluate the change in human welfare. We find modest but by and large positive effects on human welfare since a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation implies decelerated warming.

温盐环流气候模型温室气体人类福利