The cumulative carbon budget and its implications
指出二氧化碳排放的累积影响要求将长期减排视为存量问题，而非流量问题，并探讨了累积碳预算的不确定性及适应性政策方案，对气候政策制定者具有参考价值。
The cumulative impact of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions on climate has potentially profound economic and policy implications. It implies that the long-term climate change mitigation challenge should be reframed as a stock problem, while the overwhelming majority of climate policies continue to focus on the flow of CO 2 into the atmosphere in 2030 or 2050. An obstacle, however, to the use of a cumulative carbon budget in policy is uncertainty in the size of this budget consistent with any specific temperature-based goal such as limiting warming to 2°C. This arises from uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 emissions, which is relatively tractable, and uncertainty in future warming due to non-CO 2 drivers, which is less so. We argue these uncertainties are best addressed through policies that recognize the need to reduce net global CO 2 emissions to zero to stabilize global temperatures but adapt automatically to evolving climate change. Adaptive policies would fit well within the Paris Agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.