Leverage Dynamics and the Burden of Debt
研究发现，除了杠杆率，家庭和企业的债务偿还负担对支出有显著的负面影响，并与杠杆相互作用解释了信用繁荣期产出增长不足和随后衰退严重性等数据谜题。
Abstract In addition to leverage, the debt service burden of households and firms is an important link between financial and real developments at the aggregate level. Using US data from 1985 to 2017, we find that the debt service burden has sizeable negative effects on expenditure. Its interplay with leverage also explains several data puzzles, including the lack of above‐trend output growth during credit booms and the severity of ensuing recessions, without appealing to large shocks or nonlinearities. Estimating the model with data up to 2005, it predicts credit and expenditure paths that closely match actual developments before and during the Great Recession.