Do Neighbours Influence Value‐Added‐Tax Introduction? A Spatial Duration Analysis
提出一种新的空间生存模型，允许空间效应存在于基准风险、未观测异质性和因变量中，并用贝叶斯方法分析了1970-2009年99个国家增值税引入的时空相关性，发现邻国之间存在显著的空间依赖。
Abstract The spatial survival models typically impose frailties, which characterize unobserved heterogeneity, to be spatially correlated. However, the spatial effect may not only exist in the unobserved errors, but it can also be present in the baseline hazards and the dependent variables. A new spatial survival model with these three possible spatial correlation structures is explored and used to investigate the implementation of value‐added tax (VAT) in 99 countries over the period 1970–2009. Estimation is performed by a Bayesian approach through the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The estimation results suggest the presence of a significant spatial correlation among the VAT introductions of neighbouring countries.