Jobless growth in India: an investigation
研究了1978-2010年印度产出增长与就业增长的关系，发现卡尔多-维尔多恩效应增强，就业弹性下降，印度跳过了劳动密集型扩张阶段，转向高生产率模式。
This paper investigates the relationship between output growth and employment growth in India for the period 1978–2010 at the aggregate and sectoral levels. Using a Kaldorian framework of endogenous productivity growth, we find that Kaldor–Verdoorn effects in the economy have become more predominant over time, especially in the post-reform (1994–2010) period. Our estimated Kaldor–Verdoorn coefficients, measured as the employment elasticity of output growth, for both formal sector and total employment have dropped dramatically over time, suggesting that India has leapfrogged into a high-productivity regime without the broad-based expansion of labour-intensive production that has been characteristic of fast-growing economies in East Asia. We examine some explanations for why these Kaldor–Verdoorn effects have become pronounced over time and are not convinced that wage pressure has been one of the reasons. A shift in the composition of demand towards higher-productivity sectors, however, does appear to be an important part of the explanation. We also find mixed evidence that forces of international competition have generated pressures to adopt more capital-intensive techniques of production.