当经验遇见描述:二人组如何在风险决策中整合经验性和描述性信息

When Experience Meets Description: How Dyads Integrate Experiential and Descriptive Information in Risky Decisions

Management Science · 2016
被引 22
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

实验发现,由描述学习和经验学习成员组成的二人组通过相互让步达成共同决策,减轻了个体对罕见事件概率的过度或不足权重,使决策更符合规范标准,且对经验信息的可靠性敏感。

Abstract

How do teams make joint decisions under risk when some team members learn about a prospect from description and others learn from experience? In a series of experiments, we find that two-person teams composed of one participant who learns from description and a second participant who learns from experience arrive at shared decisions via mutual concessions. In doing so, they attenuate individual biases, such as the overweighting and underweighting of the probability of rare events. The social interaction thus leads dyads to make shared decisions that follow normative standards more closely than the decisions made by individual decision makers. Finally, in processing experiential information, dyads appear to be sensitive to the reliability of the experience: the more reliable the experiential information, the larger its influence on the dyad’s decision. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2428 . This paper was accepted by Teck-Hua Ho, judgment and decision making.

风险决策经验信息描述信息双人团队信息整合