A Cup Runneth Over: Fiscal Policy Spillovers from the 2009 Recovery Act
利用跨县通勤数据划分地方劳动力市场，研究发现2009年美国复苏法案支出在相邻子区域间产生显著溢出效应：1美元支出使本地区工资账单增加0.64美元，邻区增加0.50美元，且溢出效应集中在服务业。
This article studies the effects of interregional spillovers from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act). Using cross‐county commuting data, we cluster US counties into local labour markets, each of which we further partition into two subregions. We then compare differential labour market outcomes and Recovery Act spending at the regional and subregional levels. Among pairs of subregions, we find evidence of fiscal policy spillovers. According to our benchmark specification, $1 of Recovery Act spending in a subregion increases its own wage bill by $0.64 and increases the wage bill in its neighbouring subregion by $0.50 during the first two years following the Act's passage. The spillover effect occurs in the service sector, whereas the direct effect occurs in both the services and goods‐producing sector.