Contemporaries' opinions of the Allied and Central Powers' performance during the First World War: measuring turning points in perception with sovereign debt prices
通过分析阿姆斯特丹交易的六大国主权债券日收益率的结构性断点，识别出22个稳健的转折点，其中1918年春季攻势和夏季反攻是关键，市场流动性对收益率波动解释力强。
Which events did contemporary investors deem important turning points in the First World War? We address this question by looking for structural breaks in the daily yields of six major belligerents' sovereign bonds traded in Amsterdam. Detected breaks are checked for robustness in an empirical model taking into account market liquidity, portfolio effects, exchange rates, short-term interest rates, and inflation. Twenty-two turning points are identified, all of which turn out to be robust. We identify the Central Powers' spring offensive beginning in late March 1918 and the allied answer starting in late summer 1918 as the major turning points. Market liquidity is especially important in explaining the variation in yields.