The Potential Effect of Unchecked Statistical Assumptions
本文探讨了在核电站安全评估中，政府与法院采纳的未检验统计假设如何可能低估地震相关辐射泄漏的风险，并展示了违反这些假设会导致风险估计大幅上升。
This paper explores the possible impact of several unchecked assumptions on the calculated risk of an earthquake-related radiation leak accepted by the government and court in evaluating the safety of a nuclear power plant. As a full description of the legal decisions and risk calculation appears elsewhere (Gastwirth, 1989) we summarize the assumptions adopted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and illustrate how violations of them could lead to a substantially greater risk estimate.