INDIRECT EFFECTS OF INFRASTRUCTURE DISRUPTIONS CAUSED BY EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS WITH APPLICATION OF THE INOPERABILITY INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL
利用不可操作性投入产出模型,以2008年中国南方雪灾为例,量化了电力和交通中断导致的间接经济损失,为极端事件应急管理提供参考。
Economic loss caused by extreme weather events includes direct and indirect effects. Indirect loss estimates are Not only are important in identifying the vulnerability of economic system, but also more practical usefulness for improving recovery decisions. The Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) is a methodology that can estimate cascading indirect impacts resulted from interdependencies within the economic and infrastructure systems. This paper took the 2008 Large-Scale Snow Disaster in South China as a study, analysised the inoperability and indirect economic loss cause by power supply disturbance and transportation perturbation. The total indirect economic loss is about ten billion RMBs in Hunan province because of the inoperability of power and transportation. Finally, this paper puts forward a extreme events risk assessment and management framework that take interdependency analysis into account through application of IIM. The inoperability Input-Output Model can effiently and inexpensively compute the indirect economic impacts, which can provide some valuable references for emergency management of extreme events.