Linking between Energy Consumption,CO2 Emissions and Service Economic Growth in China
估算了1995-2010年中国服务业的能源消费和CO2排放，通过脱钩模型和因果检验发现经济增长是能源消费和排放的单向原因，且脱钩状态不理想。
In the light of the insufficient study of energy saving and carbon emission reduction of service industry,using the carbon emissions coefficient and the accounting method of energy consumption recommended by the IPCC in the Guidelines for National Green Gas Inventories,this paper estimates the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China' s service industry during 1995—2010,and also identifies and analyses the relationship between economic growth of service industry and energy consumption as well as CO2 emissions by applying decoupling model,ADF unit root testing,Co-integration analysis and Granger causality test.The results show that:(1)As for the energy consumption structure and variation tendency,the energy consumption of China's service industry mainly relies on high carbonation energy fuel such as petroleum and coal,and CO2 emissions show a general upward trend during the study period;(2) Tapio decoupling analysis shows that the decoupling states between energy consumption,CO2 emissions and economic growth of China's service industry are generally showing a positive tendency,but the decoupling states in more than 1/2 years of the study period fall into the intervals of expansive coupling and expansive negative decoupling,which means the decoupling states are not very ideal;(3) Results of co-integration analysis shows that there exists a one-way Granger Causality from the economic growth to energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China's service industry.Based on the above conclusions,some relative policy recommendations for the regulatory focus,methods and orientation of energy consumption and CO2 emissions strategy in China's service industry are put forward.