Looking for a Success in the Euro Crisis Adjustment Programs: The Case of Portugal
评估葡萄牙2010-14年三驾马车调整计划,指出其未能彻底解决公共债务问题,但成功推动经济改革,失业率下降、出口增长,经济增速首次超过欧盟均值。
Portugal’s economic adjustment program in 2010–14 under the troika was extensive, designed to address both its large debt and its anemic growth, so it might serve as a blueprint for reforms in the eurozone. This paper argues that, based on a diagnosis of the underlying problems of the Portuguese economy, the adjustment program failed to definitively address the public finance problems but succeeded in opening a pathway for reforms in the economy. On the negative side, public debt is still high, primary surpluses improved only modestly, and public spending barely fell as the problem of ever-rising pension payments remained unsolved. On the positive side, unemployment fell sharply, exports and the current account balance rose, capital and labor reallocated to more productive and tradable sectors, and the economy is growing faster than the European Union average for the first time in 15 years.