The Rise and Fall of American Growth: Exploring the Numbers
评述戈登《美国增长的兴衰》的核心观点,接受其关于实际人均GDP增长低于真实生活水平增长的说法,并通过加入死亡率降低的估算修正GDP,发现增长显著提升,尤其在1929-1950年间。
This paper reviews some of the major claims in Robert Gordon's Rise and Fall of American Growth. His argument that growth of conventional real GDP per person is well below that of real living standards is accepted. It is shown that adding an imputation to GDP for reductions in mortality raises growth substantially, especially between 1929 and 1950. Gordon is also right that total factor productivity growth peaked in the second and third quarters of the twentieth century but his claim that there was a “great leap forward” in the 1940s, stimulated by World War 2, is not persuasive.