The Macroeconomic Dimensions of City Growth in Developing Countries: Past, Present, and Future
从历史视角调查发展中国家城市增长的来源，指出第一次石油危机后增长放缓，并通过可计算一般均衡模型量化了技术进步、人口压力、世界市场力量等因素的作用，最后对1990年代及下世纪做出预测。
This paper surveys the sources of developing-country city growth in historical perspective and notes the slowdown since the first OPEC shock. It then quantifies the sources of city growth, first in small, open economies with modest government regulation, and second in a rather closed, large economy with extensive government regulation—India. By using computable general equilibrium models, the paper identifies the role of technological progress, population pressure, world market forces, foreign capital, fuel scarcity, the urban bias, and various policy choices. The paper concludes with projections for the 1990s and into the next century.