Aggregate Demand Disturbances,Aggregate Supply Disturbances and Business Cycles in China:An Empirical Study
分解中国产出和通胀的动态变化为总需求和总供给冲击，发现需求冲击导致产出增长与通胀正相关，供给冲击导致负相关；通胀短期波动主要来自需求冲击，产出增长主要来自供给冲击，表明通过需求管理政策控制通胀容易但控制实际产出增长困难。
This paper decomposes the dynamics of output and inflation into the aggregate demand and supply disturbances,and analyzes the business cycles.Using Chinese data we empirically concluded that firstly,demand disturbances led to positive correlation between output growth and inflation while supply disturbances led to negative correlation.Secondly,demand disturbances also led to positive correlation between output gap and inflation,which is consistent with Phillips curve.However,we only find weak evidence of their negative correlation under supply disturbances.Thirdly,the short-term dynamics of inflation is largely due to demand disturbance while that of output growth are largely due to supply disturbance,which explains the frequently observed procyclical feature of inflation.The result also means that it's easy to control inflation,but difficult to control real output growth,by aggregate demand management policy,such as tax and monetary policy.