Spatial-Temporal Analysis of the Relationship between Domestic Tourism Development and Urbanization in China
基于1994-2011年时间序列和30个省份面板数据，分析了中国城市化与国内旅游发展的线性关系，预测2020年城市化率达60%时国内旅游率等指标，并将省份分为四类以指导旅游发展。
As a result of the dual structure in urban and rural economy,there have being an obvious binary structure in domestic tourism.Based on the time-series date from 1994 to 2011and panel data of 30 provinces in China,this article reviews the relationship between the urbanization and domestic tourism development.The results show that the domestic tourism improved gradually,along with the improvement of urbanization in last 28 years.In 1992,2004 as the boundary line,can be divided into 3 stages.The urbanization with domestic travel rate and per capita cost reflect linear relationship in the view of time-series from 1994,which means that urbanization plays a significant role in the development of domestic tourism.The urbanization rate will be 60%,the domestic tourism rate and per-capita travel expenses will be 298%,1 957 yuan in 2020,meanwhile the domestic tourists and tourism income will be 4.5 million,2 935.6 million.The urbanization and domestic tourism development shows linear relationship by the use of panel date of 30 provinces in 2007,meaning that the promotion function on domestic tourism cased by urbanization shows strong.For further analysis,we divide the provinces into 4 types: High urbanization-high travel rate,High urbanization-bottom travel rate,Bottom urbanization-high travel rate and Bottom urbanization-bottom travel rate,which will be an important basic for analyzing and promoting the development of domestic tourism scientifically.