The Dynamic Effect of China Business Cycles on Inflation:Positive Research Based on Composite Index
基于动态因子模型计算中国经济周期，并分析其对通胀的动态影响，发现通胀呈顺周期性但影响减弱，建议政策保持紧缩但不宜过度。
This paper calculates the climate gap which reflects business cycles based on dynamic factor model and calculates the rolling correlation coefficients and time - varying pushing effect of the climate gap on inflation in China.The results show that inflation is pro - cyclical but the effect of the climate gap on inflation declines recently.This paper argues that it is still a wise choice to keep policies tight but,as the sacrifice ratio increases, the government shouldn't strengthen the tight policies or the economic growth will be hurt.