Analysis of the Spatial Pattern and Main Driving Factors of China's Coal Self-Sufficiency Rate
基于2000-2010年省级面板数据，分析中国煤炭生产与消费空间格局的变化规律，发现资源开采投资、区域经济水平、能源利用技术和产业结构是影响煤炭自给率的主要因素。
Chinese coal resources are mainly distributed in central and west China, while coal consumption mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal area. The unbalance distribution of coal resources and consumption resulted in coal supply can't meet the demand in many provinces. Also, this spatial malposition pattern of coal production and consumption was changed in past ten years. In this paper, the regularity and main driving factors of the change of spatial pattern of Chinese coal production and consumption were analyzed base on panel data on the provincial level during2000-2010 year. Firstly, the spatial distribution of coal production, consumption and self-sufficiency rate were analyzed,and the characters of time-spatial evolution and spatial differentiation were explored. Then, main factors which drove the change of coal self-sufficiency rate on provincial level were discussed. Also, the quantitative level of different factors was studied. It can be found that the spatial pattern of coal self- sufficiency rate and its changes were influenced by the resource exploitation ability(investment in coal industry), regional economic level, the level of energy utilization technologies(energy intensity of per unit of GDP) and local industrial structure. In which the investment in coal industry took the positive impact on coal self-sufficiency rate, the regional economic scale and energy consumption intensity took the negative impact on coal self-sufficiency rate. The impact of local industrial structure on coal self-sufficiency rate was very complex. Whether it is positive and negative will depend on the spatial distribution of high coal- consumption industry. It will be positive when the high coal- consumption industries were located in rich coal resource area, and be negative when the high coal-consumption industries were located in coal shortage area. Therefore, in order to promote the optimization of the spatial pattern of coal production and consumption, it is necessary to push forward to reduce energy consumption per unit output value and optimize energy consumption structure in the eastern coastal area with scarify coal resources. At the same time, it should promote the high coal- consumption industries to upgrade and agglomerate in western coal-rich region, such as iron and steel, building materials, electric power and nonferrous metallurgical industry.