The Coupling Modeling and Simulation Measure Between Water Resource & Environment and Socio-Economic System:Based on Dongting Lake Basin
研究了洞庭湖流域24个县市水资源环境与社会经济系统的耦合关系，建立了灰箱模型来测度耦合度并模拟动态变化，发现水资源利用效率较低但仍有潜力，耦合指数在0.6-0.7之间，处于磨合协调阶段。
With the rapid exploitation of Dongting Lake Basin in recent years,the coupling between the social and economic systems,underpinned by the water resource has large effects on sustainability of the Basin development to some extent. This paper evaluates the coupling functions between the water resource environment and socio-economic development in order to establish the grey-box model which can be used to measure the degree of coupling and simulate the dynamic coupling corresponding to the 24 counties and cities in the Basin. The result demonstrates that: 1)The efficiency of water resource exploitation maintains a lower level in the ecology,compared with the development of socioeconomics; Nevertheless,the water resource environment still has a large potential capability to sustain future growth.2) The coupling index being in the interval [0.6,0.7] indicates a stage of running in effects and system coordinated development. 3) The relationship of coupled process can be described by an inverted U-shape,a U-shape and a unidirectional increasing curve,according to the varying conditions of water resources and socio-economic development.With the rapid regional socio-economic development,the low efficiency of water resource usage may increasingly produce severe constraint effects thus the coordinated development of ecology and socio-economics systems should be enhanced progressively.