Financial Development,Financial Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations;Analysis Based on DSGE Model
通过包含三种金融市场冲击的DSGE模型，研究了金融市场冲击对经济波动的影响，以及金融发展如何改变这种影响。研究发现金融市场冲击解释了25%的产出波动，且金融发展会改变不同冲击的影响程度并减少社会福利损失。
This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including three kinds of financial sector shocks to study the effect of financial market shocks on the economic fluctuation and the change of such effect under different degrees of financial friction.The Bayesian estimation shows that:(1) financial market shocks explain 25%of output volatility,and the percent will increase with the development of financial market (2 ) the elasticity of substitution of direct financing and indirect financing in China is low.(3) the development of financial market will reduce the impacts of credit shock and financing efficiency shock on macroeconomic fluctuations and enhance the impacts of direct investment premium shock.(4) the development of financial market will help to reduce social welfare loss.