"Crowding Out Effect" Of Fiscal Policy In China:An Empirical Analyses Based on the Annual Data of 1952~2008
利用凯恩斯模型和拉姆齐模型，分析1952~2008年中国数据，发现政府购买对名义利率有显著正向影响、对私人投资有显著负向影响，即存在当期挤出效应。
Crowding out effect means that the increase of government purchase could result in the decrease of private investment,so the expansion of public expenditure would crowd out private investment Meanwhile the government is using expansionary fiscal policy to deal with the financial crisis,so the study on the effect of fiscal policy is a hot issue.This study uses two famous models;country intervening based Keynesian Model and microeconomic representative individual optimal based Ramsey Model,to analyze the relation of government purchase to real interest and private investment.Two models reach the same conclusion that government purchase is positive to real interest and negative to private investment,and the only discrepancies are the different transmission mechanisms and whether there is lagging effect According to the analyses of China's macroeconomic time series annual data in 1952～2008,this study reveals that,government purchase has a significantly positive and contemporary relation with nominal interest as well as a significantly negative and contemporary relation with private investment,which means that China's fiscal policy has a contemporary significant crowding out effect.