ON THE GROWTH OF TOURISM INDUSTRY BASED ON TBCM-A CASE STUDY OF INBOUND TOURISM IN GUILIN
以桂林为例，用背景曲线法分析入境旅游的非线性增长趋势和周期波动，揭示其演化路径，为旅游政策制定提供参考。
in this paper the growth process of inbound tourism and its inner characteristics were explored based on the background curve method as the typical tourism city Guilin a case study.What's more,the nonlinear theory was applied to probe into its development model and evolution path.All the findings are useful to the tourism policy made for the development of tourism in Guilin and macro-policies.From the study the following conclusions could be made: ①so far the inbound tourism in Guilin has been in A significant increase in non-linear trend with the cycle fluctuations from 1973.②Guilin Tourism Development has shown clear wave in the cyclical nature of the wave,short wave and long wave cycle with different laws.③ TBCM was often used for the assessment of events and forecast of tourism.The third function for the tourism growth was expanded based on the empirical case,particularly in the analysis of the cycle in the development the law that the short waves in the long wave was highlighted with this method.④ The development of tourism in an area,path-dependent by nature and at the same time affected by ongoing external shocks,was a complex system.In the domination of stimulusreaction principle,it generally follows the evolution path of mutation-path dependence-mutations-a new path conversion and dependent on the new path ….Case study shows that the evolution path of the inbound tourism in Guilin is closely meet with this development model.