The Study on the Exchange Rate of Major Currency Based on Interest Rate Parity
基于利率平价理论构建衡量货币升值贬值压力的方法,检验欧元和日元后发现欧元升值压力对其汇率波动有显著滞后影响,可用于预测汇率走势,而日元则无此关系。
Based on the theory of interest rate parity,this paper constructs a way to measure the appreciation depreciation pressure of currency.By using this way to test the fluctuation of euro and Japan yen,the author finds that the appreciation pressure of euro exert significant and lagging influence on the fluctuation of euro,and it can be used as an indicator to forecasting the exchange rate development tendency.As for Japanese yen, there is no significant co-relationship between the appreciation pressure and exchange rate fluctuation.