On the Dynamic Determination of Optimal Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves:Based on an Analytical Framework of Multi-Level Substitution Effects
将外汇储备按需求层次划分，构建基于多层次需求和替代效应的分析框架，通过静态和动态规模确定合适区间。模拟发现外汇储备存在漏斗效应，不同层次间有显著替代效应，最优规模并非各层次简单加总。中国当前外汇储备过剩，但无需积极干预，重点在于充分利用并保值增值。
This paper divides foreign exchange reserves into different demanding levels,builds an analytical framework of foreign exchange reserves based on multi-level demand and substitution effect,and tries to determine the appropriate range interval by static and dynamic scale.The stimulation results show that foreign exchange reserves have a funnel effect to meet multi-level demand,and there is substantial substitution effect between different levels.Both aggregate scale and multi-level scale are dynamic,so the optimal scale is not simple sum of all levels.China's current foreign exchange reserves are excessive,but active intervention is not necessary, the top priority is to make full use of foreign exchange reserves,and to maintain and increase its value.