THE STUDY OF INDUSTRIAL AGGLOMERATION CHANGE AND THE PROBABILITY OF INDUSTRY TRANSFER IN CHINA
通过赫芬达尔指数、区位熵和产业绝对份额等指标综合衡量中国产业集聚变化，发现2000年后劳动密集型产业开始从沿海向内陆转移，2004年后加速，而资本技术密集型产业到2007年才出现转移迹象；利用单位劳动指数测算产业转移概率，指出中部地区劳动力成本优势明显，西部地区有承接劳动密集型产业的潜力。
Industrial agglomeration change is a dynamic process which industry special location changes.By the indicators of industrial Herfindahl index,location entropy and industrial absolute shares,this paper measures synthetically the degree of industrial agglomeration change.We find that labor-intensive industries are respected by manufacture of textile wearing apparel begin to transferfrom coastal areas to else regions since 2000,and after 2004 which getting faster;until 2007,Capital/technical-intensive industries are respected by manufacture of electronic product only have begun to appear.Finally,we measure the probability of industrial transfer in China using unit labor index and find that in central region have an advantage over labor cost apparently,and western region have the potential to take overlabor-intensive industries.It is possible and sustainable forChina to develop labor-intensive industries.