What Determine China's Inflation?
研究中国通胀的决定因素，发现过剩流动性、产出缺口、房价和股价对通胀有正向影响，实际利率和汇率影响较弱，建议央行关注资产价格并推进利率汇率市场化。
The paper examines the determinants of inflation in China.The analyses of both year-on-year and month-on-month growth data confirm that excess liquidity,output gap,housing prices and stock prices positively affecting inflation.Impulse response analyses indicate that most effects occur during the initial five months and disappear after 10 months.The effects of real interest rates and exchange rates on inflation are relatively weak.Our results suggest that output gap is as important as excess liquidity in explaining inflation trajectory. The central bank should closely monitor asset prices given their spillovers to inflation.Currently liquidity measures are still central for controlling inflation,but further liberalization of interest rates and exchange rates are critical.