Evaluation of the Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Urban Agglomeration in Different Development Stages
基于城市群综合承载能力定义，构建指标体系，以长三角和吉林中部城市群为例，用状态空间法量化2005-2009年承载状况，发现土地短缺和环保投入不足是共性问题，并针对不同发展阶段提出提升策略。
Based on the definition of the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration,the paper emphasizes the carrier's influence on carrying capacity and builds the corresponding index system.Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,which is in the mature stage,and the central urban agglomeration of Jilin,which is in the initial development stage,as an example,the paper quantitatively describes the real status quo of the two urban agglomerations from 2005 to 2009 with the state space method,and then from the carriers' angle analyzes the impact on the comprehensive carrying capacity.As the results show,the shortage of land is a common problems existing in the two city groups,and the overload situation is deteriorating;Underfunded environmental governance is a key factor of restricting the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomeration;Constrained carrier optimization is the main cause of enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations;Flexible carrier construction is the main direction of comprehensive carrying capacity for the central urban agglomeration of Jilin.Based on this,the author thinks that,to enhance the comprehensive carrying capacity,the mature urban agglomeration should give priority to restore and improve the constrained carrier,supplemented by flexible carrier promoting;while the developing urban agglomeration should focus on improving the flexible carrier,and strengthen the protection of the constrained carrier at the same time.