Analysis of Vulnerability of Lake Basin Social Ecological System——A Case of Dianchi
基于压力-状态-响应和暴露-敏感性-恢复力模型，分析滇池流域社会生态系统脆弱性的时空演变和驱动机制，发现脆弱区域扩大、人为活动是主要驱动因素。
With the rapid development of social economy and the fast growth of population,pollution to the lake basin gradually aggravates,and the damage to structure and function of ecological economic system is increasing. From the angle of lake basin,level of social ecological system,aspect of the driving role of human behavior and institutional dimensions,combining thePressure-State-Responsemodel andExposure-Sensitivity-Resiliencemodel,from the point of view of social ecological system,based on analysis of drive mechanism,builds social ecosystem vulnerability analysis framework,exploring the space-time evolution of social ecosystem vulnerability of the lake watershed,revealing the driving mechanism of vulnerability. It finds out that(1)the Dianchi lake basin,whose vulnerable area is in expanding,vulnerable degree increasing,is the center and origin of vulnerability of the Kunming city,being the engine of vulnerability of the whole city of Kunming.(2)Vulnerability factors vary in different counties,the vulnerability degree tend to equalization between areas;(3)Social factors are major driving factors in vulnerability formation,with human activities the main driving factors;(4)Vulnerability scale,fragile degree are obviously influenced by the factors from outside world. At last the author suggest that(1) Management of the Dianchi lake watershed should paid specific attention to cross-scale mechanism,attaches great importance to the multi-scale management and social management,(2)make rational planning and scientific development,alleviate the pressure of the environment from human activities;(3)carry out ecological function zoning control,implementing differentiation management.