Characteristics and Influence Factors Analysis of Gravity Movement for China’s Economy from 1978 to 2008
研究1978-2008年中国经济重心移动的三个阶段，提出基于Shapley值的新分解方法，发现西部发展缓慢是主要驱动力，而非投资或区域竞争。
During the period from 1978 to 2008,with 1991 and 2003 as cut off points,China’s economic gravity centre moved south-west,south-east and north-east,respectively in sequence.Since general contribution decomposition approaches are not suitable in gravity centre method analysis,this paper proposes a new decomposition approach based on Shapley Value.TheEngineandInverse Engineprovinces are defined based on this method.We find that during the first period,the reason for westward movement is neither lag effect of investment nor a side-effect of Guangdong’s development;it is actually driven mainly by the Northeast region’s slow development.During the second period,the main driver for eastward movement is not a result of competition between Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta,instead it’s the consequence of the western region’s slow development,augmented by the eastern region’s,especially the Yangtze River Delta’s rapid development.The only reason for northward movement in third period is the slow development of the western region rather than the strategy effect ofrevitalizing the northeast old industrial base.Finally,evaluation of regional development policies best suggest that the western region is a key priority to ensure China’ s rapid economic development can be balanced.