Simulation the Model of Water Resource Managing Based on System Dynamic and DPSIRM Model——A Case Study at Heihe River Watershed,Ganzhou District
用系统动力学和DPSIRM因果网络模型构建黑河流域水资源管理模型，模拟三种未来管理模式，发现情景Ⅲ（结合技术进步与管理优化）能实现人口稳定、经济增长、水资源供需平衡，是甘州区未来最优方案。
Based on system dynamics modeling method,establish index system using the DPSIRM causal network model,and construction of heihe river basin water resources management model,then simulation the heihe river basin of Ganzhou district 3 different water management pattern in the future.The results show that:Based on SD of DPSIR model can effectively simulation study of water resources evaluation of area water resources system;In the three future water resources management mode,situational Ⅰ and situational Ⅱ in population growth,economic development and water resources utilization are optimized,and based on the comprehensive of two modes,the results of sceneⅢ:Thanks to the contribution of the third industry,population growth tends to be stable;Economic growth increased significantly,GDP will be 90 400 yuan by 2030.Over the same period,the structure of three industries' ratio will be scientific and rational;By 2030,the water demand that 6.48 million m3is less than quantity of potential available water that 7.98 million m3.To ensure the region's ecological water,the satisfaction of irrigation water users is advantageous to the comprehensive construction of water-saving society;Scene Ⅲ mainly aimed to improve water management performance.From raising population bearing capacity in the study area,adjusting the industrial structure,configuration of supply and demand of water resources,improving industrial water efficiency,clarity of water right and price,optimize the water sceneⅠandⅡ.SceneⅢindex system of water resource management model reflects the way of technological progress and management.Not just the direction prediction and ascension of construction of water-saving society of Ganzhou area in the future,also is the optimal solution of the future population,social development and water resources management model in the study area.