Analysis of Ecological Footprint Changes and Scenario Forecasts in Beijing
利用投入产出生态足迹模型，分析了1995-2005年北京市生态足迹的变化趋势和影响因素，并预测了在“三二一”产业发展路径下的情景，为协调经济发展与生态保护提供建议。
The Ecological Footprint model,which is used to analyze the changing sizes,influencing factors and scenario forecasts,is built by introducing input-output technique.The paper calculated carrying capacity of Beijing by using data from 1995 to 2005 based on the IO-EF model.The results show that final domestic demand,imported and exported are all continuing to increase,while sectoral compositions in EF have a decreasing trend in the agriculture and the other-service sectors,and increasing in other sectors.On the other hand,the improvement of the produce makes the EF decrease and the increase of the final demand leads to the great growth of the EF.In the scenario analysis,with the implementation of the Three,Two,One industrial development approach,and re-adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure,Beijing is able to deal with relationship between economic development and resource utilization,ecological protection.This paper proposes specific measures for the three industries: developing creative agriculture,technology innovation,and making progress in productive service industry.