The Impact of Rural Credit upon Rural Consumption:A Long-term Dynamic Analysis Based on State Space Model and Mediation Effect Evaluation
研究了农村信贷对农村消费的直接和中介效应，发现消费性信贷比生产性信贷更有效，但消费增长主要源于农民收入增加的中介效应（约占90%），直接效应不足10%，反映了信贷结构失衡。
In order to calculate the direct as well as mediation effects of rural credit upon rural consumption market, this paper firstly establishes an experience model including different types of rural credit and finds that consumption - oriented credit works better than production - oriented credit on promoting consumption in both short and long run.However,empirical analysis based on the state space model and mediation effect evaluation shows that,China's rural consumption expenditure in 1981～2010 should be mainly attributed to mediation effect through farmers' net income increase.The mediation effect accounts for an average level of about 90%while the direct effect less than 10%most of the time.These findings reflect structural imbalance within rural credit especially between consumption - oriented credit supply and demand.As a result,it's necessary to ease the suppressed supply of consumption - oriented credit and adjust the structure of rural credit.